Asterisks mean will not run or who have overwhelming obstacles to being successful:
Governors and former Governors:
* Rick Perry (Gov)
Rick Sanatorum (Former Sen)
Ron Paul (Rep)
*Rick Perry and Chis Chistie are convincingly denying a run, Mitch Daniels insulted social conservatives too much by not understanding that social conservatives see our national debt as a moral issue and make up a large portion of the Tea Party. Newt Gingrich burned too many wives.
But generally Bret's list is establishment or establishment compatible. Pawlenti and Jindal are not standing up tall enough in order to resist our coming catastrophe. Ron Paul unnerves people on defense.
My feeling is only Jim DeMint and Sarah Palin are the serious Tea Party compatible candidates. I think for Palin to decide not to run (and I take her at face value when she says that) even DeMint would have to step up the rhetoric a bit, and frankly that's hard to imagine.
So my bet is on Palin being the best candidate and win the primary. She will successfully paint a vision that our nation's founding principles being the way out of our current crisis. Whenever she decides to fully engage with the the LSM she'll thoroughly exceed expectations and win over independents.